ICRISAT has showcased the future of agrifood systems in South Asia as the food, land, and water systems face daunting challenges in the future, and the body of research exploring these challenges is growing rapidly. This note is part of a series developed by the CGIAR Foresight Initiative to summarize what we know today about the future of various aspects of food systems. The goal of these notes is to serve as a quick reference, point to further information, and help guide future research and decisions.
Micronutrient availability in South Asia is projected to increase by 46 percent by 2050, reflecting a significant transition from traditional cereal-based diets to diverse, nutrient-rich foods, though affordability limits access for low-income groups. The shift from traditional diets to processed foods has led to an increase in obesity and diet-related non-communicable diseases. Rising demand for animal-source foods also puts pressure on local resources and increases reliance on imports.
Agriculture in South Asia relies heavily on freshwater, primarily groundwater, which is critically overused. Additionally, soil degradation and the burning of crop residues contribute to air pollution and pose risks to the sustainability and productivity of the region’s agricultural land. Climate change is expected to significantly affect crop yields, particularly for staples like rice, wheat, and maize, with projected reductions by 2050. This climate impact will exacerbate food insecurity in the region, especially as food demand continues to grow.
Current foresight studies often overlook the impacts of unexpected external shocks, like pandemics and the Russia-Ukraine war, on agriculture and food systems. Addressing these research gaps and focusing on context-specific technological solutions, climate-smart practices, and self-sufficiency could enhance resilience and sustainability across South Asia’s agrifood sector.
Recent trends and challenges
South Asia is the most densely populated region in the world, with a current population of 1.8 billion (one-fourth of the global population), projected to increase to over 2 billion by 2050. This rapid population growth will put significant pressure on agriculture and Agrifood systems and the ICRISAT would address these challenges. Despite being an agricultural powerhouse, South Asia has high levels of food insecurity, with many people suffering from malnutrition and hunger. It is also among the regions most vulnerable to climate change and relies heavily on intensive farming practices, leading to several inadequacies in agriculture and food systems that bear directly on food production and security. Further, the highest concentration of agrifood system workers is in South Asia, with 793 million people. South Asia is also home to over 600 million young people (aged 15–35), who make up around one-half of all agrifood system workers.
Socioeconomic and demographic context
- High poverty and malnutrition rates: Despite contributing significantly to global food production, South Asia faces intense food insecurity and poverty challenges.
- Systemic socioeconomic inequalities: Social, economic, and geographic disparities hinder access to nutritious foods and agricultural resources.
- Labor shortage and youth migration: Rural out-migration, particularly among youth seeking better opportunities in urban areas, has resulted in farm labor shortages.
- Policy and market limitations: Many farmers face weak market access, inadequate extension services, limited irrigation facilities, and nonoptimal enabling policy support.
Environmental pressures and resource depletion
- Water scarcity and overuse: Agriculture accounts for over 90 percent of freshwater withdrawal in South Asia, creating severe water stress.
- Increasing land degradation and fallowing: A substantial portion of agricultural land in the region faces human-induced degradation driven by dwindling freshwater resources and declining soil health.
- Agriculture-related air pollution: The prevalence of crop residue burning and excessive use of nitrogenous fertilizers in South Asia contributes to increased air pollution.
- Policy challenges: Inadequate water governance in South Asia fails to balance agricultural demands, leading to drying shallow wells and unsustainable water use.
Changing dietary patterns and health implications
- Nutrition transition: South Asia is experiencing a shift from traditional cereal-based diets to highly processed foods rich in sugars, fats, and salts.
- Rising consumption of animal-source foods: The positive growth in consumption of animal-source foods is likely to increase demand for animal feed and reliance on food imports for humans.
- Economic barriers to nutritious diets: Nutrient-dense foods remain unaffordable for many households in the region.
Nutrition and dietary shifts are increasingly recognized by ICRISAT in foresight studies of the South Asian region as critical factors for shaping sustainable Agrifood systems, with direct implications for both human health and environmental resilience. ted to experience reductions in unsuitable areas by 2050, allowing for improved yields if adaptive strategies are implemented.
The informal economy is vital for food security and employment but is often neglected in foresight studies. Insights into consumer behavior, especially preferences around health and sustainability, remain insufficient, impacting production and supply chains. Finally, investing in alternative agricultural value chains should be a key focus of foresight research to maximize developmental outcomes across South Asia. By addressing these critical gaps, future research can contribute to a more resilient and sustainable agrifood system in the region.